April-June GDP Record drop in Corona Virus, research firm forecast August 1, 11:02 a.m.
This year, from April to June, a preliminary report on GDP and gross domestic product will be released on the 17th of this month. Private research firms predict that the spread of the new coronavirus infection will result in an annualized decline of more than 20%, a record drop in excess of the Lehman shock.
The forecast for GDP growth from April to June, compiled by 10 private research firms, was negative from minus 5.9% to minus 8.1% in real terms, excluding price fluctuations.
In terms of the annual rate for one year, it will be minus 28.7% from minus 21.7%. This is expected to be a significant decline, above the annual rate of minus 17.8% from January to March 2009 after the Lehman shock, making it the biggest drop since 1980, when comparisons are possible.
As for the factors, each company cited a significant decline in private consumption due to the spread of the new Coronavirus infection and a significant decline in exports of automobiles to Europe and the United States due to lockdown.
As a result of the spread of the infection, gdp fell historically from April to June in eurozone countries such as Germany and France, but it is likely to result in a major blow to Japan.
In Japan, private consumption has gradually recovered and corporate production activities have resumed, but the number of people infected is increasing again at present, and uncertainty about the future is intensifying.